I have up until now avoided writing much about Russian pension reform (mainly because of the very long-term nature of the calculations, which means that it is generally not a very exciting issue as well as having a high degree of uncertainty), but both recent events in Russia and a useful recent IMF Working Paper entitled “Reforming the Public Pension System in the Russian Federation” mean that it is time to tackle the issue in more depth – at least in terms of giving an overview of the situation.

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It is now some months since President Medvedev directed that some way be found to lower the 34% “insurance contribution” on wages up to the threshold – in 2011 – of 463,000 rubles per year.

How to achieve this has turned into a protracted dispute between ministers and officials from the ministries of “Health and Social Development”, “Economic Development” and “Finance”. The latter has finally gained the support of Deputy Premier Igor Shuvalov and Vladimir Putin for its variant, and a report has been prepared for Medvedev.

The Ministry of Finance, under Alexi Kudrin, suggested a new scale with the general rate being lowered from 34% to 30%, and with the introduction of a new 10% rate for wage payments about the threshold limit (which will rise to 512,000 in 2012 because of indexation for inflation associated wages growth). “Small business” will get a “discount”, in the form of a general scale of 20%, and a 7% rate above the threshold.

The Ministry of Economic Development had opposed the addition contribution and wanted this amount to be compensated from the Federal Budget. The Ministry of Health and Social Development had opposed the additional contribution by small business, but not for medium and large business.

The president’s assistant for economic issues, Arkady Dvorkovich, has reportedly “promised to fight to the bitter end” against the Ministry of Finance idea of the additional contributions of 10% and 7%. (He earlier had accepted, it was reported, the idea of an additional 5% contribution as part of a variant that included compensating the Pension Fund from, among other ways, privatization receipts.)

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The current so-called 34% “insurance contribution” is paid by employers on wages of up to 463,000 rubles. It consists of 26% to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation; 2.9% to the Social Insurance Fund (compulsory social insurance for temporary incapacity to work and for maternity); 2.1% to the Federal Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund; and 3% to territorial compulsory medical insurance funds. The Pension Funds is in large deficit.

Jeff says that ….

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