This is online draft of my book on Russia’s economic future. It is posted in the 6 book parts linked below. I will update it sometimes as events unfold.

© Jeff Schubert. —– DRAFT 21 August 2023

Introduction

Part A. Political and Administrative System

•  Population and Labor Force Issues
•  Constitution and “Federation” Issues
•  Budgetary and Financial Systems

Budgetary System and Policy

Financial System and Policy

• Infrastructure
• Power Realities
• Corruption

Part B.  Early Putin Period

• First Steps
• “Strategy2020” Research and Report

Part C.  Later Putin Period

• Post-2014 Crimea
• National Projects
• Information Control, Education and Research
• State Control of the Economy
• Management Capability
• Economic / Technology Sovereignty

Part D.  Russian International Economic Relations

Countries and Regions

• Eurasian Economic Union and Central Asia
• China
• Other countries and regions

Products

• Energy Exports
• Minerals and Raw Materials
• Agricultural
• Manufacturers and Technology

International Issues

• Climate Change
• Arctic

Conclusion

ABSTRACT

Since February 2022 Russia has increasingly turned inward in political, social and economic terms. At the same time, Russia’s top leaders – and some important supporters – seem to think that Russians have some unique characteristics and talents that will allow an extreme focus on self to thrive in a complex economic and technological world; and also both influence and attract others. While this may appear to be so in the short-term because of Russia’s generally successful efforts at macroeconomic control, rich natural resources, internal propaganda and implicit threats to use nuclear weapons, this thinking is delusional. The ideological corruption of the education system will reinforce the misguided notion of technological sovereignty; and social and economic life will in the medium-long term move toward stagnation. Moreover, Russia is a country with a declining population which is increasingly ignorant of the wider world, a deteriorating culture, and no solid friends. Little will change while Putin and his thinking hold sway in Russia and present an antagonistic face to the world, and most Ukraine related foreign sanctions remain in place. Russia’s economic and political future is not particularly rosy, but neither is it anything like the 1990’s because of a generally competent bureaucracy and little prospect of regional separation.

Russia’s Economic Future: Part 1

Russia’s Economic Future: Part 2

Russia’s Economic Future: Part 3

Russia’s Economic Future: Part 4

Russia’s Economic Future: Part 5

Russia’s Economic Future: Part 6